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It mostly seems stuck on the same issues in reasoning and common sense that AI has had problems with for at least 50 years. But modern-day AGI research is not doing well at all on either being general or supporting an independent entity with an ongoing existence. I would like it to exist-this has always been my own motivation for working in robotics and AI. We have no idea whether it can even exist. I am told that I do not understand how powerful AGI will be. This is a problem I regularly encounter when trying to debate with people about whether we should fear artificial general intelligence, or AGI-the idea that we will build autonomous agents that operate much like beings in the world. And if it becomes indistinguishable from magic, anything one says about it is no longer falsifiable. If it is far enough away from the technology we have and understand today, then we do not know its limitations. This is a problem we all have with imagined future technology. And remember, Newton was a really smart dude. It would be indistinguishable from magic. It would be no different to him from an embodiment of the occult-something that was of great interest to him.

So I think he would be flummoxed, and unable to come up with even the barest coherent outline of what this device was. Watch out for arguments about future technology that is magical.Ĭould Newton begin to explain how this small device did all that? Although he invented calculus and explained both optics and gravity, he was never able to sort out chemistry from alchemy.

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And then show him a Web page with the 500-plus pages of his personally annotated copy of his masterpiece Principia, teaching him how to use the pinch gesture to zoom in on details.

#The seven deadly sins movie

Now play a movie of an English country scene, and then some church music that he would have heard. Newton, who revealed how white light is made from components of different-colored light by pulling apart sunlight with a prism and then putting it back together, would no doubt be surprised at such a small object producing such vivid colors in the darkness of the chapel.

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Pull out an iPhone from your pocket, and turn it on so that the screen is glowing and full of icons, and hand it to him. Imagine we had a time machine and we could transport Isaac Newton from the late 17th century to today, setting him down in a place that would be familiar to him: Trinity College Chapel at the University of Cambridge. But for now I want to expound on Clarke’s Third Law.

Personally, I should probably be wary of the second sentence in his first law, as I am much more conservative than some others about how quickly AI will be ascendant.

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It tracks fleets of trucks and reports on driver ­performance. It determines which seed variant will be planted in which part of many fields across the globe. It is used by all our airplanes, large and small, to navigate, and it is used to track people out of prison on parole. It even allows the high-frequency traders who really control the stock market to mostly avoid disastrous timing errors. The technology synchronizes physics experiments across the globe and plays an intimate role in synchronizing the U.S. The tiny size and price of the receiver would have been incomprehensible to the early GPS engineers. My Series 2 Apple Watch uses GPS while I am out running, recording my location accurately enough to see which side of the street I run along.

Today GPS is in what Amara would call the long term, and the ways it is used were unimagined at first. Mistaken predictions lead to fears of things that are not going to happen.

The first operational use for its intended purpose was in 1991 during Desert Storm it took several more successes for the military to accept its utility. But the program was nearly canceled again and again in the 1980s. The goal of GPS was to allow precise delivery of munitions by the U.S. Starting in 1978, a constellation of 24 satellites (now 31 including spares) were placed in orbit. An optimist can read it one way, and a pessimist can read it another.Ī great example of the two sides of Amara’s Law is the U.S. There is a lot wrapped up in these 21 words. We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.